I believe that peace in Afghanistan is paramount for the peace in Pakistan vis-a-vis in South Asia.
This 2 decades-long war has finally proved to be a disaster and catastrophic not more than a costly impasse for the US-led European allies. As the growing militancy and civil war in a politically unstable due to power politics of diverse ethnic factions and economically fragile Afghanistan posing a serious threat to the war-torn country in general and region in particular.
Massive human rights violations, presence of foreign troops, destruction of infrastructure, power politics of different ethnic groups, the political rise of Islam, conflicting policies within US administration and contrived commonality of interests of the regional states especially Pakistan and India in Afghanistan have led the country to a place for the non-state actors and ISIS now ISIL as well.
POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS OF US TALIBAN PEACE DEAL:
I infer that Post withdrawal troops will lead Afghanistan into more chaos and instability as Afghan government cannot sustain alone as it is already dependent on foreign aid (63 % budget of Afghanistan came from foreign aid ).
Secondly, Afghanistan would be an easy target for Taliban and ISIS as ISIS is a potential threat for the Afghanistan and region in the absence of US-led coalition forces. Also, it can give rise to militancy in Pakistan.
Thirdly, the key for the peace negotiations lies in the demand of Afghan Taliban including withdrawal of US forces, the
formation of interim government through a fair process, the revision of the Afghan constitution, lifting a ban on the Taliban leadership and release of 5000 Taliban and their allies.
Fourthly, Ethnic politics of diverse factions in Afghanistan will lead Afghanistan into a power politics, more instability and disintegration.
Fifthly, there are multiple challenges in establishing a national government where the Taliban will take part as legitimate stakeholders as there is a severe legitimacy crisis faced by the national unity government in Afghanistan.
Sixthly, revision of the constitution is still a challenge as there is a conflict between the Afghan government and Taliban that which form of government and which system will be suitable for Afghanistan I.e Republic Afghanistan Or Islamic republic Afghanistan.
Also, there is no tax base in Afghanistan and she is facing severe economic challenges as well.
Seventhly, Fair elections, granting of women rights, Talban’s guarantee of absenteeism from violation and assurance not to support militancy
are still multiple challenges in the intra-Afghan dialogues.
Eighthly, the untrained army of Afghanistan is unable to fight the militancy and terrorism in Afghanistan.
Ninthly, to stop poppy cultivation and drug trafficking in Afghanistan is still a great challenge.
Also, the growing influence of Moscow and China in settling this dispute is a challenge for US hegemony which has changed the regional apparatus.
Lastly, the contrived commonality of interests between Pakistan and India in Afghanistan will not be helpful to build formal cooperation in all areas of mutual interests between the countries.
Pakistan and the regional players are playing a potential role in the settlement of this dispute, yet the prospects of success are bleak due to impediments in intra-Afghan and inter-Afghan peace dialogues.
Simple & to the point 👊